HR Prop — Fair-Value Dashboard

pick a hitter · live data fills the model · you compare to the market
Pick a date, then start typing a hitter — the model finds their game automatically.
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+1952.95
Model Prob
33.9%
Expected HR (λ)
0.414
Per-PA HR
9.1%
COMPARE TO MARKET
Type the book's price. Nothing is fetched — you enter it.
Enter market odds to compare
Market Implied
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Prob Edge
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EV / $100
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Hitter Baselinep₀ 7.28%

Blend of career, season and recent HR/PA. Recent is noisy — keep its weight low.

Playing Time4.55 PA

Lineup slot sets expected PA (defaults are manual — confirmed lineups post ~2–4h pregame).

vs Starter 2.59 PA · vs Pen 1.96 PA

Pitching Matchup×1.02

Odds-ratio: batter rate scaled by each arm's HR/PA allowed vs league. Platoon auto-fills from splits.

Ballpark×1.18

Handedness HR park factor (1.00 neutral). Auto-set from the home venue & hitter's side.

Weather & Air×1.14

~1% HR per °F off 70°F; wind out/in to center adds or removes carry. Closed roof neutralizes both.

Temp ×1.14 · Wind ×1.00

Schedule & Health×0.99

Manual nudges for travel fatigue, back-to-backs, and injuries. Rested & healthy = 1.00.

Price Attribution

Baseline per-PA rate bent by each factor, then compounded across expected trips into λ. Bars center at 1.00.

FactorEffect (centered at 1.00)MultRunning p
λ → P(≥1 HR) — 0.414 33.9%